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Europeanbest electric utility vehicle market analysis for the first half of 2018: new king top, few losers
- Aug 27, 2018 -

Electric vehicle sales in Europe reached 195,000 in the first half of 2018, up 42 percent year-on-year.

These include all pure electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV), passenger cars and light commercial vehicles on the European market.

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Electric vehicles accounted for 2.2 per cent of Europe's light vehicle market in June and 2 per cent overall in the first half.

Current trends suggest growth of about 40 per cent by the end of the year.

Among them, the sales of pure electric vehicles (BEV) account for 51%, and the rest are plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV).

During that time, only 87 fuel-cell vehicles were sold, up from 66 last year.

The Numbers are the strongest evidence yet of the powerful push by hyundai and Toyota.

According to sales, the German market is the most important contributor to sales growth.

Even though this year's growth rate is 52 per cent, compared with 100 per cent last year, the sharp rise in German sales is still driving the growth in total sales.

Norway remains Europe's largest electric car market, accounting for a staggering 37% of light vehicle sales this year.

Passenger cars alone accounted for 46.5% of the market in the first half of 2018.

Various signs show that the purpose of increasing sales can be effectively achieved by means of substantial reduction of vehicle tax, reduction of use cost and improvement of charging infrastructure.

Sales rose in all European countries in the first half of 2018, and in many of them, though not yet high, they have doubled.

For the whole of 2018, electric vehicle deliveries in Europe are expected to reach 430,000, accounting for about 2.35 percent of the market.

The figure is the sum of all eu and efta countries.

There are now more than 1m electric vehicles in Europe, and 1.35 million are expected by the end of the year.

Growth is everywhere this year


Norway still tops the European market.

Domestic electric vehicle deliveries have reached 36,500 units in Norway as of June this year, and total sales are expected to reach 84,000 by the end of 2018.

Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles account for 45% of the domestic market.

By contrast, sales growth in Germany is stronger.

By the end of 2018, Germany is expected to take the lead in Europe with 88,500 registrations.

Despite the mixed growth, sales in all European markets rose in the first half of 2018.

For policy reasons, the Netherlands and Denmark, after years of sluggish sales of electric vehicles, are finally entering a phase of rapid growth.

Sales of electric vehicles in France and the UK have continued to grow steadily as domestic original equipment manufacturers (PSA, ford, vauxhall) offer prices in the sector less attractive to buyers.

Belgium reduced policy incentives for high-end plug-in hybrids, so sales grew just 4 percent.

Other countries have seen double-digit or triple-digit growth for nearly half a year, albeit from a small base.

Overall, European electric vehicle sales rose 42 percent compared with the first half of 2017.

It grew 40% in the first quarter and 45% in the second.

High growth rates in the second half of the year could lead to a shortage of vehicles.

Based on our tracking of ev inventory, the average inventory supply is only four days, while the backlog of orders is as long as two months.

Among the more than 10,000 outstanding orders, the models in question are hyundai kona, Volkswagen e-golf, jaguar i-pace and nissan leaf, all electric vehicles.

Northern Europe is a leader in electric vehicle applications


Volume Change vs 2017 H1: comparison with sales in the first half of 2017

The figure above shows the share of electric vehicles in light vehicles sold in countries, as well as the proportion of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the overall share.

In addition to the baffling new energy vehicle tax plan introduced by the Danish market, the Nordic countries are generally leading in the field of electric vehicle applications.

As usual, Norway's share of electric vehicles is not in the chart.

So far this year, it is 37%.

Electric cars have a long history in Norway (for example Th!

Nk and Buddy minivans), and the concept of electric vehicles predates other countries by several years.

Norway has introduced clear and stable incentives, with big tax cuts saving some costs.

Even if terrain and climate conditions are not ideal, electric vehicles have become the smart choice for light transportation.

99% of hydroelectric power also helps reduce electricity spending.

Iceland is similar.

The proportion of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles varies greatly among different countries, which largely depends on the incentive measures.

As the number of German original equipment manufacturers has increased, the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles has risen significantly compared with 2017.

Since the start of 2018, European pure electric vehicles account for 51% of total ev sales.

Electric vehicles have a high market share in Iceland, Sweden and Finland, where plug-in hybrids are the main product.

It is expected that future incentives will reduce support for plug-in hybrids and increase support for electric vehicles.

Sweden, for example, introduced a stricter "reward and punishment" system of vehicle taxes on July 1st.

The move directly contributed to a 10 per cent rise in pure electric vehicle registrations in July.

Market conditions suggest 430,000 sales in 2018


Electric vehicle sales and market share from January to June 2018 were significantly higher than in 2017.

Year-to-date market share is 2 percent, compared with 1.44 percent in the same period last year.

Sales were also up 42 percent year over year.

The electric vehicle market in the second half of the year is expected to continue this trend and follow the seasonal pattern in previous years.

The market for 2018 younger cars could reach 18 million units (+ 1.9%), while electric cars will reach 430,000 units by the end of the year.

However, electric vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, may be limited in the supply chain.

Inventory is tight for most models, some of which are badly in short supply.

Manufacturers have announced plans to increase production of certain models such as vw's e-golf and BMW's i3.

Despite the fact that 7,000 Norwegian customers are now waiting for the model, it is still possible that hyundai will reduce its output to the Norwegian market.

The problem of expensive all-electric suvs has yet to be resolved, but with the imminent arrival of modern kona (which has been oversubscribed in Europe) and future models such as the tesla model-y, it will be resolved.

In China, this segment is highly anticipated, with new all-electric suvs coming out every month.

It is only a matter of time before the wave reaches Europe and the United States.

Sales growth index


PEV Population (' 000s) : number of plug-in electric vehicles (unit/thousand)

Annual Sales (' 000s): Annual Sales (unit/thousand)

By the end of 2017, 930,000 electric vehicles had been driven on European roads.

Add the 430,000 new vehicles in 2018 and remove the scrapped vehicles, and the number will increase by 45%.

Europe will have about 1.35 million electric vehicles by the end of 2018.

Europe has nearly 300 million light vehicles on its roads, which means electric vehicles make up just 0.45 percent of the fleet, a tiny fraction but with huge growth potential.

Public charging stations are in short supply.

According to statistics, there were about 80,000 public charging places in Europe at the end of 2017, and the figure is expected to reach 100,000 by the end of 2017, with an annual growth rate of 25%.

Even though 80-90% of the charging work is done in the home/workplace, pure electric vehicles still face several challenges at present, especially during long journeys.

Second, the signage/card/application of the charging station operator is required;

Third, need to learn the concrete operation steps;

Fourth, occasionally there will be operating failures.

It is only at home that it may be more troublesome abroad.

Anxiety about charging adds to concerns about vehicle range, and unless more convenient and reliable public charging facilities are available, the situation will affect sales of all electric vehicles outside tesla.

In this regard, all we can do is to encourage charging providers to work together to ensure the best quality of service.

The new king came to the top and few defeated


Unlike in the us, the new nissan leaf has sold well in Europe as soon as it went on sale, replacing the long-leading Renault Zoe in the top spot.

New and improved models are popular, as evidenced by the triple-digit growth rates of the Volvo XC60, porsche Panamera, and the Smart.

In the last quarter, the all-new Volvo SUV presented a huge challenge to Mercedes GLC and mitsubishi.

Audi e-tron and BMW Active Tourer introduced small changes in the first and second quarters, with sales declining over the period, but back on track in June.

Since June 2017, the number of models in the European market has increased from 51 to 56.

In June 2018, we tracked 27 pure electric vehicles and 29 plug-in hybrids.

We found a good sign in the survey: 42% year-over-year growth was driven not just by products, but also by increased awareness and insight among people in the industry and car buyers.

In the first six months of 2018, the top 10 manufacturers are # 1 BMW 35450 + 29%, # 2 Volkswagen 33700 + 44%, # 3 Renault 21,400 + 10%, # 4 nissan 19300 + 42% and # 5 Daimler 18800 + 35%.

The fastest growth rates were # 6 hyundai - kia + 234% and # 7 Volvo 164%.

Mitsubishi (# 9) is the only brand whose sales have declined (-3%), tesla is in eighth place (model-3 is available after 2019), and finally PSA is in 10th place.